In my day job, I’ve traveled a bit for work of late. I’m accustomed to carrying a water bottle with me most places.
On a recent trip, I went into the bathroom at the hotel to fill up my water bottle. Without checking the depth of the sink, I unscrewed the lid of my water bottle, set both bottle and lid aside, then took one of those paper cups wrapped in plastic, opened it, and began filling my water bottle one cup at a time. Three cupfuls in, I realized I was wasting more water between pours than I was getting into my water bottle.
“Huh,” I thought. “I wonder if my water bottle will fit in that sink.”
Turns out, it did. I was able to fill my water bottle the rest of the way without wasting another drop.
What happened?
There are two pervasive mental models that our brains employ unconsciously based on our life experience: confirmation bias and the apparency paradox.
Let’s discuss the last one first. The apparency paradox refers to a situation where something appears to be one way based on assumptions and initial experience, but when we look at it a little harder, we see things a different way. It’s a paradox because our perception and expectation based on our experience and appearances lead us to overlook practical or efficient solutions.
The apparency paradox is a common trope in movies where a super smart scientist-type can’t figure something out, then a junkyard mechanic comes in and with a whack of a hammer resolves the issue. The scientist couldn’t solve the problem because their own perception made the simple solution invisible to them.
Next, confirmation bias. This is when our initial beliefs about something cause us to overlook evidence that might contradict those beliefs. It’s also something that shows up when someone’s ideas often work out, so they always believe they have the best ideas.
In my case, my initial judgment was that the sink was probably not deep enough for my water bottle to fit. I’ve stayed in plenty of hotels where the sink wasn’t deep enough for my water bottle.
The example is a bit sophomoric, perhaps, but it highlights that the apparency paradox and my own confirmation bias limited how effective I was at filling up my water bottle, at least initially. I didn’t even consider that my water bottle might fit in the sink because of my past experience.
Neither of these world views is a bad thing. We’re faced with so many insignificant decisions and situations everyday that if we had to stop to analyze every one of them we’d never make any progress.
When we’re faced with more complex decision-making scenarios, however (whether personal or professional), becoming mired in these ways of thinking can make us less effective at solving the problems in front of us.
As far as I’m aware, nobody’s life was adversely impacted by the cupfuls of water that were wasted before I realized my bottle would fit in the sink. However, there are times when the apparency paradox and confirmation bias can cause significant personal or professional problems.
Here’s a more dramatic example. Let’s suppose an aged neighbor has often complained about chest pain that has largely been fueled by anxiety. One day, however, he comes over and seems a bit off, complaining about chest pain. Because of his prior history, it’s easy to brush it off as anxiety again.
Later, the neighbor suffers a fatal heart attack. Because of the many “false alarms,” confirmation bias led to the conclusion that nothing was seriously wrong with him.
Or, maybe it’s the apparency paradox causing a business leader to put too much confidence in their own idea against the advice of other key employees that leads to major financial issues for the company.
The challenge with business, in particular, is that the scenario of the leader who goes against the tide of advice who then secures a major win is touted as heroic.
Again, there’s nothing wrong with these mental models inherently. Where the problem resides is when we rely too frequently on our own judgment and nothing else. A good practice is to regularly challenge our own assumptions.
Before settling on a solution or conclusion, it’s often instructive to consider alternative perspectives. I could have solved my water bottle problem easily by quickly checking the depth of the sink. The time cost would have been far less than a single cupful of water.
Another help can be asking other people for their opinion. This is particularly true when tackling something new in life or business. By discussing ideas or assumptions with others, we can gain insights that challenge biases.
Steve Wright said, “experience is something you don’t get until just after you need it.” While perhaps a bit sarcastic — and somewhat ironic considering the topic — our own prior experience can be beneficial in solving problems. The key, again, is to ensure we don’t blindly take our own advice if challenging our own assumptions would serve us better.
These mental models are useful shortcuts that make everyday life possible but also risk leading us the wrong way when more complex problems are in front of us unless we’re willing to challenge our own way of thinking on a regular basis. This will not only help us avoid potentially costly mistakes but also enhances our capacity to make good decisions.
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